Electricity Economics & Financial Analysis

Description

A four day intensive, technical hands-on course in which attendees receive comprehensive instruction on the theory and practice of making price forecasts and assessing risk in the electricity generating industry.

Forward pricing and valuation in electricity generation is a four day intensive, technical hands-on course in which attendees receive comprehensive instruction on the theory and practice of making price forecasts and assessing risk in the electricity generating industry. After discussion of electricity markets around the world, the course moves to programming and model structuring, where attendees follow the lead of the instructor in building various analyzes of forward pricing and valuation issues. Exercises include analysis of supply and demand, modeling of capacity mix and capacity level optimization; construction of time series analysis for fuel prices loads and hydro generation; and, project finance analysis of merchant plant investments. As the course progresses, attendees apply risk assessment, option pricing, and valuation techniques in real world cases using an integrated model. In addition to building their own models, participants learn how to use fully developed models that incorporate sophisticated debt structuring, break-even analysis, contract pricing, time series equations and Monte Carlo simulation.

What you will learn

• Learn practical tools to analyse a host of issues in electricity analysis including efficient tools to work with supply and demand data; creating flexible scenario and sensitivity analysis to evaluate power prices and marginal costs; effectively presenting short-term and long-term supply and curves; development of hydro analysis; Monte Carlo simulation and other issues.
• Create demand and supply models of electricity pricing that incorporates changes in fuel prices, new capacity, demand profiles, maintenance outages to measure hourly marginal cost and total generation cost.
• Study the structure of market designs around the world and simulate pricing strategies through evaluation of the California crisis and simulation exercises.
• Understand the relationship between capacity pricing, reliability, loss of load probability and reserve margins through extending the short-run supply and demand analysis and modelling outage cost with different capacity configurations.
• Model the economic value of different types of renewable resources in alternative markets including storage hydro, run-of-river hydro, wind and solar.
• Develop efficient ways to quickly compute the levelised electricity cost of different technologies using carrying charge factors and alternative financial models and use levelised cost analysis to develop screening models of optimal resources.
• Evaluate long-run marginal cost of electricity cost through simulating the value of different generating resources given load curves and simulate the effects of different capital costs, heat rates and fuel prices on the long-run marginal cost.
• Compute the effects of start-up costs, heat rate curves, and transmission constraints on the value of alternative plants and the price of electricity.